Preseason Rankings
Seton Hall
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#52
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#104
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 10.2% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 9.6% 10.2% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 10.2% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.9% 44.6% 20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.6% 40.3% 17.8%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.5
.500 or above 65.1% 67.3% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 48.8% 50.3% 29.8%
Conference Champion 6.6% 7.0% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 12.0% 22.3%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 2.4%
First Round41.3% 43.0% 19.5%
Second Round24.1% 25.2% 9.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.1% 10.6% 3.3%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.4% 1.3%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.2 - 5.11.2 - 5.1
Quad 1b2.0 - 3.43.2 - 8.4
Quad 24.4 - 3.67.6 - 12.1
Quad 34.6 - 1.512.2 - 13.5
Quad 44.0 - 0.216.2 - 13.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 215   Wagner W 78-65 93%    
  Nov 14, 2018 35   @ Nebraska L 73-75 33%    
  Nov 17, 2018 71   Saint Louis W 70-68 68%    
  Nov 22, 2018 114   Grand Canyon W 76-70 71%    
  Nov 23, 2018 201   Hawaii W 78-66 85%    
  Nov 25, 2018 23   Miami (FL) L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 01, 2018 54   Louisville W 77-76 62%    
  Dec 04, 2018 316   New Hampshire W 78-59 97%    
  Dec 08, 2018 3   Kentucky L 72-81 22%    
  Dec 15, 2018 140   Rutgers W 72-65 81%    
  Dec 19, 2018 324   Sacred Heart W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 22, 2018 32   @ Maryland L 72-74 34%    
  Dec 29, 2018 31   St. John's L 75-77 54%    
  Jan 02, 2019 44   @ Xavier L 77-78 38%    
  Jan 06, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 77-73 54%    
  Jan 09, 2019 33   Butler L 73-75 55%    
  Jan 12, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 78-81 30%    
  Jan 15, 2019 47   @ Providence L 72-73 40%    
  Jan 19, 2019 89   DePaul W 77-73 72%    
  Jan 27, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 73-80 19%    
  Jan 30, 2019 47   Providence L 72-73 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 33   @ Butler L 73-75 36%    
  Feb 09, 2019 41   Creighton L 78-79 58%    
  Feb 13, 2019 69   Georgetown W 78-76 65%    
  Feb 17, 2019 41   @ Creighton L 78-79 38%    
  Feb 20, 2019 44   Xavier L 77-78 58%    
  Feb 23, 2019 31   @ St. John's L 75-77 34%    
  Mar 02, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 78-76 46%    
  Mar 06, 2019 24   Marquette L 78-81 49%    
  Mar 09, 2019 8   Villanova L 73-80 37%    
Projected Record 16.2 - 13.8 8.4 - 9.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.2 0.9 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 4.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 2.7 0.5 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 10th
Total 0.3 0.8 2.3 3.5 5.6 7.4 9.6 10.4 11.3 11.6 10.0 8.5 7.3 5.0 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 98.2% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 81.0% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 53.8% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 27.5% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.7% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.6 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.0% 98.6% 15.3% 83.4% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
12-6 7.3% 95.9% 10.6% 85.3% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.5%
11-7 8.5% 87.1% 9.7% 77.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 85.7%
10-8 10.0% 73.9% 9.3% 64.6% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 71.2%
9-9 11.6% 47.7% 5.3% 42.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 44.8%
8-10 11.3% 22.7% 4.2% 18.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 19.3%
7-11 10.4% 9.7% 4.8% 4.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4 5.1%
6-12 9.6% 4.4% 3.8% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.2 0.7%
5-13 7.4% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.3 0.0%
4-14 5.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
3-15 3.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
2-16 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
1-17 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 42.9% 7.0% 35.9% 7.0 1.1 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 3.9 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 57.1 38.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0